- Photo credit: Matt Slocum
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers -11 (-105)
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
October 18, 2018, 5:00PM PDT
Our computer simulation work estimates a Sixers win by about 14 when Philly hosts the Bulls this afternoon. As such, we are comfortable laying 11 and backing the home favorites.
We are aware that the two NBA games featuring double-digit lines so far this season have gone the underdog's way (against the spread, that is). This experience is rather fitting, given that since 2005, of almost 2,600 instances, favorites of 10 or more have covered at only about a 47% clip.
However, the present appears to be a higher probability spot for the cover by the big favorite. NBA teams that achieved an ATS win rate of at least 55% last year are solid bets when favored by 10 or more, at home, off a loss and facing opposition that missed the playoffs a season ago. This cohort has racked up about a 10% ROI since 2005.
Finally, we highlight that the Sixers went 27-14 ATS as home favorites last year, while Chicago accrued a record of 19-22 ATS when receiving points on the road. Over the last three years, Philly is 33-16 laying chalk in their own building and the Windy City representatives are 50-55 ATS as travelling underdogs.
Happy betting!!