Oct 17 NBA Action: Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
- Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns +1 (-105)
Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix, AZ
October 17, 2018, 7:30PM PDT
Our computer simulation work offers a bonafide ATS signal on the Suns vs. the Mavs this evening (unlike yesterday's flier on the Sixers, which was not validated by our primary framework). We expect the Suns to record the straight up win tonight, by a comfortable margin. We are betting accordingly.
Consistent with our thinking, we have observed that bad teams in the West tend to cover against other bad teams in the West when receiving points at home. Specifically, since 2005, Western Conference teams getting 1-3 points at home after covering no more than half of last season's schedule are 56% ATS facing other teams from the West that failed to make a playoff appearance last year.
Further, the situation described above has been an even more profitable spot for home teams when the betting public is not on board. Such teams are 34-25-2 ATS (58%) when the line moves 1-3 points the opposition's way.
We also note that the Suns have won and covered the last five head-to-head meetings with the Mavericks overall, and are 4-1 ATS in the last five versus Dallas in Phoenix.