The computer simulation routines at our disposal find meaningful value both with the Cavaliers and the Bulls in their 2020-2021 season openers. We slate Cleveland as a bucket or so better than Charlotte tonight, and we not only forecast the Bulls beating the number, but the machines see the potential for Chicago to cover by double-digits. Accordingly, we are backing Cleveland ML +130 and Chicago ML +113.
History seems to validate this perspective, as teams taking points in openers after losing ATS seasons have proven VERY strong bets historically, generating a 17% return on investment since 2005.
Both the Cavaliers and Bulls fit this system Wednesday, as do several other teams:
Portland Trail Blazers +1.5
Washington Wizards +7.0
San Antonio Spurs +2.0
Orlando Magic +4.5
Detroit Pistons +6.5
Given the tendency for bad teams versus the number to show signs of reversion early in the next year, it might make intuitive sense that teams that were more friendly to bettors in the prior season have been bad bets when traveling for a season opener. Betting against last year's moneymakers when they are slated as the away team in the first game of a new campaign has delivered a similarly impressive 16% long-term ROI.
Cleveland and Chicago both fit this system as well, fortifying the environmental support Wednesday's picks, but there is not as much overlap between these two systems as one might guess. Other contests meeting the criteria of this second system are:
Phoenix Suns PICK
Indiana Pacers -7.5
Boston Celtics +4.0
Houston Rockets -2.0
Denver Nuggets -7.5
As further incremental support for the Cavs anyway, teams that failed to make the prior playoffs, despite amassing winning records versus the number, have been ever more profitable fades when cast as the road team in a season opener, as indicated by the 22-9 ATS record for this spot. This sub-system highlights two contests in addition to the Cavaliers.
Indiana Pacers -7.5
Denver Nuggets -7.5
Happy betting!!