NY Giants @ NE Patriots -17
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
October 10, 2019, 5:20 PM PST
The three independent computer simulation routines we license are unanimous in endorsing New England to cover the massive 17 points the Pats are laying to the Giants. Our sim work calls for a home win by at least 20 at the conclusion of the week 6 edition of Thursday Night Football. We are betting accordingly.
We must concede though that we feel some anxiety laying three scores, as teams favored by two touchdowns or more are only 37-39-1 ATS since 2003, per Pro Football Reference.
As another macro-level support for the Giants, writers at The Action Network have found evidence that the betting public overreacts in primetime game situations. When public bettors clamor to throw support behind popular teams, bookies might seize opportunities to over-inflate spreads on these darling favorites, ultimately pushing betting lines up to untenable levels. The Patriots' seemingly perrenial success may have created the level of popularity that would elicit such a response.
Specifically, when bettors move a line in a highly visable contest like tonight's nationally televised action by two or more points, it has paid to fade the team receiving the line value. Since 2003, this system hit after 59% of its signals.
Per SportsInsights, CRIS opened this contest at Pats -15. Lopsided action on New England though, as measured by bet volume and/or dollars wagered, motivated bookmakers almost immediately to widen the line to -16.5, and eventually to the present consensus -17.
In spite our trepidation laying big numbers generally, and the potential that mom and pop bettors jumping on the Patriots' bandwagon turned the dial too far, we are getting down on New England to cover. We point to a couple of factors below (beyond the constructive indication from our sim work) that assuage our concern about the Pats' ability this evening to best the outsized spread. First, broadly speaking, NFL home favorites have been great bets on Thursday nights, as indicated by this cohort's 59-40-6 (60%) ATS record since 2003.
Additionally, the Giants and Pats have met only three times in the last decade, which we think likewise bodes well for the better team's prospects of securing the cover this evening. As validation for this perspective, consider that New England is 79-49-3 (62%) ATS when favored in regular season action against a non-division opponent.
Further, the Patriots are a similar 47-26-3 (64%) ATS laying points to non-division opposition at home.
Happy betting!!