Easter Sunday 2019 NBA Action: Celtics @ Pacers
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers +1.5 1H
Boston Celtics -3 @ Indiana Pacers
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers u204
The limited history at our disposal says stick a fork in the Pacers; they are done after today's action. Supporting this thinking, we note that NBA playoff teams taking points in game 4, after dropping the first three games of a series, have only covered at a 38% rate since 2005.
Fading teams in this position has delivered a 20% long-term return on investment (ROI).
Of note, this sysyem has been most efficacious during the first round of the playoffs, submitting a 35% ROI during the opening set, on an ATS record of 23-11-2. Profitability diminishes thereafter though, and is negative by the Conference Finals.
With that said, we do like the Pacers through the first two periods of play. From the fourth game of the post-season forward, Eastern Conference dogs on at least three-game losing streaks have been solid bets against the first half spread. Since 2005, teams in this spot have delivered a 23% ROI).
Finally, we also favor the UNDER in what we expect will be the last coming-together this year between the Pacers and Celtics. Supporting this view, we have observed that playoff games where the road team is favored have tended toward the UNDER in the past, covering 56% of the time since 2005 and amassing an 8% ROI for dedicated bettors.
Also consistent with the idea of the UNDER cashing in, lower scores have been strong plays in the playoffs game 4's featuring teams from the East, down 0-3 (29% ROI).