Toronto @ Detroit +4.5
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
March 3, 2019, 3:00 PM PST
We like the Pistons to cover versus Toronto and are officially backing the home dog at Little Caesars Arena in Motown Sunday afternoon. Supporting this play, we cite big picture and team-level historical betting trends in favor of an ATS win for Detroit.
Setting the stage for the first system we will highlight, recall that the Raptors were tied with the Trail Blazers at Scotiabank Arena Friday with 13 ticks left in the fourth. It was only Kawhi Leonard's last play heroics that allowed Toronto to secure the two-point home win.
Per data from BetLabsSports, it has been profitable to fade teams off narrow victories in certain spots. The version of this system in play Sunday focuses on high-quality road teams, off wins by one possession, facing competition from the same conference ((but different division). This system has delivered a 7% return on investment since 2005, and is 14-2 ATS so far this season.
We also find evidence of momentum after a big win in certain situations, which further supports Detroit's cause Sunday afternoon. The Pistons are coming off an absolute dismantling of the Cavaliers Saturday. The Motor City crew finished the first quarter up 19, and would go on to pad that already gaudy margin in the second. By halftime, the Pistons' lead was 33. Still, Detroit did not take its foot off the gas pedal. The Pistons outscored Cleveland 58 to 55 in the second half, and closed this contest up by 36.
Historically, teams that have dispatched their previous opponent by massive margins, and that compete again the following night have been able to keep the magic going more times than not. This cohort has covered their next game at a 55% clip since 2005.
At the team-level, interestingly, three of the best units in the League are among the worst versus the number. The Warriors, Raptors and Rockets have each earned this dubious distinction. In fact, Toronto is about as bad as it gets ATS this year:
2nd worst ATS record in NBA,
19-25-1 ATS following a win,
19-31-1 when favored to win,
12-17-1 ATS on the road,
17-22 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference
Happy betting!!