LA Lakers @ GS Warriors -11.5
Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA
Feb 2, 2019, 5:30PM PDT
The Warriors took a pounding in the third quarter of Thursday's meeting in Philadelphia. Golden State entered the second half of that game up by 7, but gave up 42 points to the Sixers in the third--16 more points than the Dubs could muster. Further, Golden State produced an anemic 18 points in the fourth quarter, and ultimately lost that contest by 9 (from the position of 8-point favorites, no less).While disheartening for the Warriors faithful, this surprising loss may have set the stage for a strong bounce back performance Saturday afternoon.
This season, Golden State is 13-4 ATS laying double-digits, including a 7-4 stint from the comfort of their own building.
All-time, the Warriors are 68-63-2 ATS as home favorites of at least ten under Coach Kerr--just about good enough to achieve break-even. Of note though, this cover rate improves to 59% (on a record of 48-34 ATS) when we consider only games where Golden State faced Western Conference opposition.
Moreover, when we narrow our focus further to include only Pacific Division foes, the impressive 59% cover rate holds (the Dubs are 17-12 ATS when Kerr's team is laying 10 or better to team from their division).
Separately, Steve Kerr's Warriors are 46-50-1 ATS in aggregate off a loss, but these struggles generally unfold on the road. At Oracle, Golden State is 28-20-1 after being dealt an "L". Golden State is a 7-3 versus the number facing Pacific Division opposition off a loss.
Bottom line: Coming off the loss to the Philly a couple of days ago, look for intensity from the Warriors today that matches their talent level. While exciting, the Lakers, who are struggling to advance to the number 8 spot in the West, simply do not have enough fire power to contend with the team tied for 'best in the West' honors. We are betting on Golden State to redeem themselves and secure the cover.