Detroit Lions +7.5 (-120) @ Chicago Bears
Our power rankings composite gives the Bears somewhere between a 2-6 point edge when they host the Lions this morning. Further, we cite several historical tendencies that also are consistent with the Lions cover. As such, we are quite comfortable taking the touchdown plus the hook with Detroit.
Road dogs have historically exhibited an edge in divisional action, covering 53% of the 919 games since 2005 that met these criteria and that did not end in a PUSH.
Away teams, like the Lions, that are taking points after posting ten or fewer in their previous game have amassed an even better track record, beating the number 55% of the time.
Road dogs have likewise proven to be solid bets in divisional action after a loss by between two and three touchdowns (although, at 1-3 ATS, this framework is faring poorly this season--after incorrectly backing these same Detroit Lions and the Jets last week).
Nonetheless, the balance of the data suggest redemption may be at hand today, as we observe data that hints that in addition to the present environment being favorable for Detroit, it may be rather hostile for Chicago.
The Bears have greatly improved from last year's 5-11 squad that finished dead-last in the NFC North. In fact, on the current year, the Bears reached 5-3 SU last week after collecting their second consecutive win by blowing Buffalo out in East Rutherford. However, such circumstances have served as a good fade signals in the past.
Teams that did not make the prior playoffs, that are on a two-win streaks and that beat their last opponent by 20 or more have covered at a mere 45% clip since 2003. Importantly, the profitability of this system persisted regardless of home field advantage, which team was favored or whether the team faced Divisional opposition.
Happy betting!!