2018 NFL Week 10: Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons -5.5 (-101) @ Cleveland Browns
Our power rankings composite predicts the Falcons will prove 7-9 points superior to the hosting Browns when these teams meet this morning, suggesting value with Atlanta. Additionally, we observe evidence that history is on the side of the road team today. Accordingly, we are laying the 5.5 and betting that Cleveland's four-game SU losing streak and two-game ATS skid will persist for, at least, a while longer.
Supporting our power rankings-based recommendation, since 2003, teams that made the playoffs last year and that rattled off a three-game SU win streak have been good bets in their next out (105-86-3, 55% ATS). This observation suggests that, to some extent, momentum is real for proven teams.
Further, when good teams on a three-game roll are favored while traveling, their cover rate swells to 61%.
As the present situation appears desirable for Falcons-backers, it also looks precarious for Cleveland fans. It has been nominally profitable to beat against teams that dropped four-in-a-row. A strategy of fading teams in this position is 101-114-4 (53% ATS) since 2003. When the falling team is at home for their next out, as is the case for the Browns this morning, their cover rate shrinks to 42%.