Miami Dolphins +10.5 (-110) @ Green Bay Packers
Our go-to framework says this year's Green Bay Packers are about a touchdown better than the Fins at Lambeau Field this week. This forecast fits with history, as far as we can tell. As such, we are taking the 10.5 and backing Miami to cover on the road.
In support of our power rankings-based play in on the road dog this afternoon, we submit that bad teams...and Green Bay is a bad team--the Packers sport a win rate of 0.430, with two of their three wins coming against the Niners and Bills....as I was saying, bad teams favored by double-digits have been a GREAT fade historically, generating a 27% ROI since 2003.
Of note, in every such instance the favorite was the home team. Further, when the big favorite with a losing record is coming off a loss by ten or more, fading their next out is 13-7 ATS.
Happy betting!!