Buffalo Bills +7 (-110) @ New York Jets
Our primary NFL handicapping framework estimates the Jets advantage at home over the Bills to be in the four to five point range. In addition to the value implied by our power rankings model though, we also note contextual evidence that adds credence to our play on the Bills. As such, we are taking the touchdown and siding with the lowly boys from Buffalo to cover.
When two poor team match-up, our rule of thumb is to back the underdog, as the team receiving the points has covered in about 54% of all instances since 2003. However, bad underdogs' historical advantage against bad opposition increases on the road. This cohort is 55% against-the spread, for a return on investment of about 9%.
Further, bad road dog's are 20-14 ATS facing equally bad opposition after losing their prior contest by at least four touchdowns.
Thus, per our slicing of the data at our disposal, all roads seem to point to the Bills cover in this meeting of the have-nots.
Happy betting!!