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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Oct 22 NBA Action: Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers


- Photo credit: Geoff Burke, USA Today Sport

Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers o227 -104

In addition to favoring the Wizards versus the number, we also like the OVER's chance of cashing in tonight, as both of the involved teams this evening boast characteristics that support a high-scoring affair.

For example, so far this season, at about 123, the Blazers offense is second only to the Pelicans' by points per 100 possessions (the League-wide average is 111). Additionally, Portland's effective field goal percentage is about 6.5% better than average, good for second best in the NBA. Moreover, the Blazers rank seventh by free throws per 100 field goal attempts, which is good for almost an additional three points per 100 shots. This latter stat might be particularly germane tonight, as Washington is the most foul-prone team in the NBA so far this year.

Also aiding the OVER's chances, John Wall's Wizards naturally operate at a high pace, as is indicated by Washington's seventh seeding by possessions per game. The Wiz's uptempo style should result in a higher than average number of attempts for the Blazers. In turn, Portland's hallmark efficiency should translate these extra shots into points on the board.

Moreover, the Wizards rank second by free throw rate, hitting an average of 12 more one-pointers per 100 shot attempts than the norm.

On the other side of the ball, the Blazers rank a mediocre 17th by opponents' efficient field goal percentage, and an equally uninspiring 16th by points per 100 possessions--right around the League average/median levels for both measures.

The Wizards defense too fits with the idea of a payday for the OVER. Washington allow's the 24th most points per 100 possessions in the NBA, despite holding their opposition to well below the average effective field goal percentage. The Wizards' Achilles' heels on D have been the inability to pound the defensive glass and the the seemingly irresistible urge to commit fouls. The former deficiency has resulted in about 8 more second-chance points per game allowed than the average NBA team--dead last in the League by this score. The latter has gifted Washington's opposition almost ten tries from the charity stripe per game versus an average team.

From a bigger picture betting trends perspective, we observe that the present spot has been profitable (historically) for the OVER. Regular season NBA games with high totals (i.e. at least 220) and featuring two teams that both went OVER in two of their last three out has delivered an 11% ROI since 2004.

Happy betting!!

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