Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots -6.5 (-102)
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
December 12, 2016, 5:30PM PST
We like the Pats to cover Monday night. Our primary handicapping factors call for the home win by 9-10 points. Similarly, our sim work expects New England win by an average of about 11 points -- however, one of our three simulation routines expects a Ravens cover by the slimmest of margins. Nonetheless, in aggregate, our framework offers solid support for the Patriots.
From a betting trends perspective, the bulk of the data also appears aligned with the home team. Baltimore has had the edge in head-to-head action at New England (the Ravens are 4-0-1 in the last five meetings under these conditions, however, the Ravens have struggled to cover away from home this year, as indicated by their 1-4 ATS road record.
Conversely, New England is 4-2 ATS this season at Gillette Stadium. Further, the Pats are 7-3 from the position of favorite, while the Ravens are 1-3 when receiving points. Also New England is 7-1 versus the number outside the AFC East; Baltimore is 2-6 facing non-AFC North competition.
Happy betting!!