Our 5-3 week 8 performance improves our record picking ATS winners to 38-31, for a just better than a 55% win rate. The Bills and Cards fell woe fully short, while the the Bucs had a chance, thanks to a record-setting 200 penalty yards by the Raiders, but failed to secure the cover thanks to an Oakland touchdown in OT. Tennessee, Washington, Houston, Denver and Green Bay though each delivered the expected result.
Looking forward, there is no shortage of action this week. Our primary framework identifies six compelling spread plays for Sunday, including full house support for the Packers vs the Colts (as a reminder, our full house plays are 10-2 on the season). Additionally, our multi-factor computer simulation model identifies the Dolphins at home versus the Jets as compelling. Plays unanimously endorsed by our sim work are 10-2 so far this year.
As usual, the table illustrates our actual wagers, including vigs we incurred, as well as a quantitative assessment of our confidence for each play (expressed in average expected ATS margin of victory). Additionally, last week we introduced season-to-date accuracy stats for games selected by the current calibration of our model that feature the involved teams. In week 8, our 42% accuracy rate handicapping Patriots and Bills games this season offered advance warning to our readers of the potential for a loss. This week, our lack of prescience handicapping contests featuring the Cowboys and the Browns, and the Jets and Dolphins likewise suggests caution might be warranted, despite the large expected cover margins.