NFL Week 17: The Last Hoorah
Our Week 16 NFL Sunday picks were profitable. Arizona covered easily versus Green Bay as 4.5 point favorites, and our two underdog selections, the Colts and the Bears, both won outright. Also, we accurately forecast the Cowboys @ Bills, Panthers @ Falcons and Packers @ Cardinals to go UNDER.
Negative surprises last week included the Seahawks and Chiefs sustaining stunning home losses (both as double-digit favorites), and the Panthers being dealt their first 'L' of the season at the Atlanta Falcons. Our deep dog play, the 49ers +10, also failed to cover. In the end, we were 5-3 on the day.
Additionally though, we called for the Chargers to beat the number at the Oakland Raiders in the final installment of Thursday Night Football, as well as for the Bengals to cover at Denver on Monday night. Thus, we finished the week a smart 8-4.
On the season, based on our own unaudited (read: subject to error) figures, we are 82-65-4, for a 55.7% win rate (ignoring pushes). Our record against-the-spread is 58-46-3, while our totals picks are 24-19-1. Our totals and spread picks have been equally accurate on the season.
We observed last week an unusually high degree of support from supplemental indicators for the picks generated by our primary (power rankings-based) handicapping system. We hypothesized that such a phenomenon foreshadowed the strong performance we would ultimately submit in week 16. If that premise is correct, we should close out the season with a bang, as our week 17 recommendations too find ample validation in our suite of secondary gauges. In fact, four our of 10 against the spread picks are endorsed by every factor in our lineup (we observed three such 'full house' signals last week). Accordingly, we are excited about the potential for a strong finish to our NFL betting season. Our picks for week 17 are listed below:
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills +3 (-125) [BUF -0.8]
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears PICK -110 [CHI -1.2]
Baltimore Ravens +10 (-120) @ Cincinnati Bengals [CIN -8.7]
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns +10.5 (-110) [CLE +9.0]
Washington Redskins +4 (-108) @ Dallas Cowboys [DAL -0.8]
Philadelphia Eagles +4 (-108) @ New York Giants [NYG -2.6]
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-120) [KC -9.6]
Seattle Seahawks +7 (-125) @ Arizona Cardinals [ARI -5.1]
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers +3.5 (-125) [SF +3.2]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers -10.0 (-120) [CAR -11.3]
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills o42 (-110) [45.1]
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants u51.5 (-110) [49.1]
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos o41 (-110) [42.8]
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals o46.5 (-110) [48.3]
As always, the list above reflects wagers we have actually laid, including average vigs paid (in parenthesis). The estimate of the line generated by our system is bracketed in red font, and games supported by full house signals are shown in bold.