New Year's Day NBA Play: Betting Total on Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Computer simulations point to a combined total score in the 190 ballpark when the Kings meet the Timberwolves at the Target Center this evening. While quant factors hint that this forecast might be on the low side, we definitely think that, at 210, the line actual betting is too high. We are therefore playing the UNDER.
Sac averages 101 points per contest on the road, while the Wolves typically generate 95.6 of offense at home, hinting at a total of around 197qutonight. Median, rather than average numbers, imply a total of 194. However, adjusting for the strength of the two defenses involved (or, in this case, the lack thereof) skews these estimate higher, to the 200-201 range -- still way below the bogey at 210.
Bottom line: simulations and a quantitative assessment suggests the Kings @ Timberwolves u210 is the most probable outcome. We are wagering accordingly.