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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Dec 11 Early Bird NBA Pick: Prop Bet on Rockets at Kings

With only two games scheduled, the NBA calendar is especially light today. However, our work has identified this prop play as being worthy of 'Early Bird Pick' status:

Houston Rockets o98.5 at Sacramento Kings

The two simulation programs we employ see Houston finishing with between 101.3 and102.5 points -- providing at least a (roughly) 3 point cushion against the betting line.

Simulatoins aside though, statistics also support this call. The Rockets have played 10 games away from the Toyota Center. Of these, Houston has posted less than 100 points on only three occassions (most recently, the Rockets put up an inferior 93 points at the Golden State Warriors last night). The Rocket's median score in away games this season is 106.

Further, the Rockets, so far, have experienced four instances this season where they have played the second game of back-to-backs on the road. On three of these four occasions, Houston broke 100 in the scoring column.

Interestingly, Houston, on average, attempts fewer field goals than 26 of the 30 NBA teams, yet the Rockets rank 9th in points scored in away games. This discrepancy is likely explained by the Rockets' abmornally high reliance on the long-ball. Houston averages 34 three-point attempts per contest -- roughly 7 shots per game more than the number two team (Dallas), and about 12 more than the league average. And with a 35% aggregate connect ratio, they have been proficient from behind the arc.

True to form, the Rockets attemtped 35 threes in last night's losing effort at the Warriors. However, they only hit 9 (less than 26%). We do not expect two consecutive sub-par shooting efforts, and as a result are anticipating that Houston will find the range tonight and score into the triple digits.

Happy betting!!

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